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Obama 329 McCain 194 Ties 15
This day in 2004: Kerry 232 Bush 285
RealClearPolitics has these numbers, assuming no toss-up states:
Obama/Biden 353 McCain/Palin 185
However, even with toss-up states, these are the numbers: Obama/Biden 264 McCain/Palin 163 Toss-Ups 111. In other words, as the numbers stand now, McCain would have to win every single one of the toss-up states to win the election. Obama only needs 6 more electoral votes, and every one of the toss-up states, except NH and NV, have at least that many, so Obama only has to win 1 or 2 of the toss-ups to take the Presidency.
Even North Carolina my state, is in play! They're currently tied in NC, 48 to 48, according to electoral-vote.com. Rasmussen says it's Obama 50 McCain 47 as of October 2. With the numbers this close and with minorities and youth not being weighted as high as they should be, Obama could win North Carolina!
Finally, DailyKos has some great analysis from several sources, including Pollster.com, which has a really nice graph for you:

Positive values indicate a Dem. lead. Basically, in the popular vote, Obama is doing far better than Kerry or Gore were at this time.
Last gasps: Between this and the "pallin' around with terrorists" comment... oh boy."The Republican Party on Sunday said Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama had not done enough to screen out illegal campaign contributions and asked U.S. election officials to look into the matter.
Citing news reports, the Republican National Committee said Obama had accepted contributions from foreigners and taken more than the $2,300 maximum from donors who give in small increments. The Obama campaign denied the charges.
The RNC said it will ask the Federal Election Commission to examine Obama records in detail to determine the extent of the problem. |
Also important to note is that the crux of the Republicans' argument is that Obama has gotten half of his donations from small donors:"Cairncross said little is known about many of Obama's donors because the campaign is not required to disclose detailed information about people who give less than $200.
The Obama campaign, which is not accepting public funds, has raised more than $468 million. About half has come from small donors, a point of pride for the Obama campaign. |
Perhaps Al Queda has each of its members donating $199.99. Did you think of THAT, Cairncross, you liberal media elite?
As for Ayers:| "The AP's Daniel writes: "Her reference to Obama's relationship with William Ayers, a member of the Vietnam-era Weather Underground, was exaggerated at best if not outright false. No evidence shows they were 'pals' or even close when they worked on community boards years ago and Ayers hosted a political event for Obama early in his career." |
Finally:| "Obama, who was a child when the Weathermen were planting bombs, has denounced Ayers' radical views and actions. |
If we're playing the guilt by association game, McCain's decades in government could certainly show many more dangerous 'pals' than Obama.
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