Dirty Greek - More On Obama's Very Large Electoral Lead

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Dirty Greek - More On Obama's Very Large Electoral Lead

Politics : More On Obama's Very Large Electoral Lead

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Electoral-Vote.com has some more great news for us today! The current polls show:

Obama 349 McCain 174 Ties 15

That means Obama's gained 20 electoral votes since the polling data I discussed yesterday. Now, that's a significant lead, but let's consider just the states that are marked "Strong Dem" or "Weak Dem." "Strong" means support of 10% or more, "weak" means 5% to 9%, and "barely" means less than 5%. Those include:

WA-11
OR-7
CA-55
NM-5
MN-10
IA-7
WI-10
IL-21
MI-17

ME-4
VT-3
NH-4
MA-12
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-15
DE-3

MD-10
DC-3
PA-21
VA-13
FL-27
NY-31
HI-4

For a total of 304. So, even if all of the states that are tied or "Barely Dem" are won and McCain takes the rest, that's still a win for Obama by 70 votes (304 to 234). Everyone knows, however, that Florida is never a sure thing for the Democrats, so let's assume that it doesn't work out there. That then changes the final tally to 277 Obama, 261 McCain. That's close, but close only counts in horseshoes and thermonuclear war.

I feel like I should be safe and say that, in the end, that's the sort of numbers we'll see on election day. However, there are several other states that are at least leaning Obama and several that are completely tied, including North Carolina. This could end up being a 1992 style landslide after all, but unless something huge happens, I think this thing is over. I'm not going to count my chickens, though.

Let's hope we don't have to wait too far past midnight on election day to find out this time though, ok? I'd like to get some sleep.