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The electoral count hasn't changed much based on the polls lately, but Obama's still barely leading in NC (depending on which polls you read), and he might even be edging forward in North Dakota. That's impressive.
So, now that we're only 3 weeks away, I'm going to give you a visual rundown of the possibilities as I see them. First, my very conservative map:
Here, Obama wins 281 to 257. He doesn't get several big EV states that he's currently slated to win, including Florida and Virginia. I bet the final results will look most like this than any of the other maps I'm going to show you.
However, there is always the chance Obama wins Florida, too. It seems unlikely, but he's currently polling several points ahead, and Hispanic voters have turned against McCain, which is also helping Obama in New Mexico. So, let's assume that the Hispanic and Latino voters come out in droves to vote Obama, giving him New Mexico, and that he wins Florida as well:
That's alot of very pretty blue there, isn't it? However, it still comes nowhere close what RealClearPolitics and Electoral-Vote.com are predicting. You have to be wary of those, however, because they include very tight races that are barely leaning in their counts. Let's assume the unthinkable happens, though, and one or two more typically red states go Obama. Because I live there, let's say I can celebrate the Tarheel State's intelligence after NC goes blue for the first time since Carter ran for President, and Virginia republicans somehow all misplace their keys. Hell, let's throw in North Dakota for good measure, because Obama's polling ok there, too:
That would be a really sweet map to go to sleep to on November 4, wouldn't it?
To screw around with your numbers a bit and see how badly McCain can possibly lose this year, check out The DailyKos Political Scoreboard.
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