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This report is about what I've been saying to my friends when they complain about the crazy winter weather we've had this year and make jokes about Al Gore and global warming. Decreasing thermohaline circulation isn't a joke, and if it's happening, we're in for a world of (very cold) hurt, even though the first decade of the new millennium was the hottest on recordEven the U.N. Environmental Program's Jan Liu agreed to such a possibility in a previous article I wrote for AlterNet on intensifying weather events and thermohaline shutdown. "While the general average trend is one of a warming climate," he said, "this does not mean that extreme cold events or snowstorms will not take place. In fact, as you rightly point out, climate change may even contribute to an increasing intensity of snowstorms, as moisture levels in the atmosphere rise."
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But somehow, the idea that global warming, which is admittedly monkeying with global atmospheric pressures and flows, has nothing to do with either a weakening Arctic Oscillation, currently as negative as it's been since the '50s, or weakening Gulf Stream, that could possibly lead to a decrease in thermohaline circulation capable of plunging Europe into another ice age, is a non-starter among not just deniers but also climate-change true believers. Which is ridiculous, if you think about it.
Both are always careful to remind the would-be dot-connectors that we are confusing weather with climate, even though they admit they have little scientific clue as to where one begins and the other ends. Logic dictates you can't have weather without a climate, and right now, ours is off its moorings. Anthropogenic warming has thrown what was once a stable climate into disarray, and may be leading as much to ruinous droughts as to record-breaking freezes. And arbitrarily separating them into linear camps utterly misses the point of global warming's greatest lesson: Volatility is the new normal, in weather, in the economy, in politics, in whatever. And woe to those who aren't ready to adapt to the new normal. And if this is the case, we're hapilly skipping along, with the mollifying sound of news reports on "climategate" and snarky right-wingers laughing "how about that global warming" as we move into a new ice age. If you don't want to believe we're causing this, that may be ok, because it might be too late to stop this trend now anyway.
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